Analyzing the statewide propositions from the 2018 California ballot
I always find it challenging to decide whether or not to support a given proposition. Everyone has their unique spin and self-interest playing into their framing of the details and impacts of the proposition. One of the resources I’ve found valuable over the years is Voter’s Edge, which is packed with helpful information about each proposition such as:
- Top contributors to the “Yes” and “No” campaigns for each proposition
- Number of organizations who have made a “Yes” or “No” endorsement for each proposition
- General context about each proposition, including for and against arguments and budget impact
While this information is helpful, it definitely takes some effort to get insights from the text-heavy format. We’ve turned the information from Voter’s Edge into a Kumu map to make it easier to make sense of all the data:
How to read this map
Each line on the map represents a contribution to the Yes or No campaign for a given proposition. Teal lines are for the Yes, purple dotted lines are for the No.
Each circle is sized by the total contributions. This means propositions are sized by the total contributions received (both Yes and No), and entities and individuals are sized by the total contributions given (both Yes and No).
You’ll see that propositions are a bit more complex in that they have both an inner circle as well as an outer circle (or shadow):
The size and color of the inner circle is based on the contributions. A bigger inner circle means more dollars were contributed to both the Yes and No campaigns. A more purple inner circle means there was more No funding, while a more green inner circle means there was more Yes funding.
The size and color of the shadow is based on endorsements. A bigger shadow means more endorsements were made (both Yes and No). A more purple shadow means there were more No endorsements, while a more green inner circle means there were more Yes endorsements.
The last thing you’ll notice about the propositions is that some have a blue arc (as with Prop 10 above), some have a red arc, some have both, and some have none. The blue arc indicates that the California Democratic Party made a Yes endorsement, while the red arc indicates that the California Republication Party made a Yes endorsement.
Below are some of the ways I use this map to inform my decision on how to vote for each proposition…
Identify which propositions have no opposition funding
I always find it interesting to know which propositions have no funded opposition. This doesn’t mean you should always vote Yes, but if no one is upset enough to fund opposition, it does make me lean more toward a Yes vote.
Identify which propositions have bipartisan agreement
We’re defining “bipartisan” as agreement between the official stances of the California Democrat and Republican parties. It’s interesting to know that there are two propositions both parties agrees should be a Yes vote:
And it looks like No votes are more divisive as there are no propositions both parties agree to oppose.
Look at who is funding the Yes or No vote and think about their self-interest for doing so
What do realtors have to gain from Prop 5 and why are they the only ones funding the Yes campaign?
What might dialysis clinics have to gain from pouring millions into the No campaign for Prop 8? What does the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW Local 617) and SEIU California have to do with Prop 8?
Look at whether the Yes/No balance of funding lines up with the Yes/No balance of endorsements
For many of the propositions, the color of the inner circle matches pretty closely with that of the outer shadow. It’s interesting to know when these diverge as it can be a sign of a particularly wealthy vested interest skewing things.
For example:
- Prop 5 has more No endorsements but more Yes funding (due to significant funding from the Realtors Associations).
- Prop 10 has more Yes endorsements but more No funding (with a significant portion of the No funding coming from property developers).
And most importantly, do your research.
What I find most powerful about this visualization (and most maps) is its ability to help you ask better questions. It’s always a good idea to spend some time thinking through the potential unintended consequences of a given proposition. Try to be aware of your own self-interest and how that is influencing your vote. And don’t vote purely based on any one of the above insights but use them to dig deeper and make more informed choices when you head to the polls (or the mailbox).
